What is Predictive Planning and how is it different to Adaptive Planning? Planning is a vital part of being human. We Plan for something that we either want or expect to occur in the future. There are many types of Plans. Budgeting how much money we are going to need in the future, say over the next 12 months is planning. Buying insurance coverage is Planning to minimise the expense of an issue occurring to our vehicle or house.

For Complex situations, such as Developing a Product, there are many variables that go into getting to a finished Product. A Project Plan showing who or what is needed when and how much it will cost is needed. A Project Manager does not wake up in the morning and ask HR to find him a data researcher within 48 hours. They would have understood in advance when they would require the individuals. The would have also factored recruiting and hiring activities into their Plans.

Predictive Planning and Dependencies

Planning is as much an art as a science. The Project Plan will factor in everything that is needed to reach these project Goals. This plan takes into account dependencies, Lead Times and costs along the way. Scenario Planning is a mechanism used to predict the possible outcome of an event. It considers what is needed in each case, what the worst case, best case, and a middle case are. It also includes the most likely outcome.

A Project Plan is a covenant between the Customer and the Product Developers,. It offers clarity on what will be Delivered when, and how much it will cost. It improves the confidence level in the Project team. The Customer can recognize what the percentage complete of the Project is to date (Note that the Project conclusion percentage is not the same thing as the Product complete portion).

Traditional Planning – Predictive Planning

One of the chief skills of any Project Manager is Project Planning. This is followed up by monitoring progress on and compliance to the Plan. In Traditional Project Planning, the Scope of the Project is fixed right at the start. The Project Manager develops his Plan based on the understanding that there will be little or no Change to the Scope. The aim of a Project Plan is to comply with it with as little deviation as possible. Where Changes are to be made they generally involve Changes to resources, Time and the spending plan. The scope is rarely changed. Such Plans are followed faithfully, and some Times really successfully.

Visualising a Product

It can be extremely difficult to Visualise a Product accurately. This is a particular problem if it is an intangible product, like Software. Even if the specifications were Developed in good faith, the Customer does not get the Opportunity to try the Product and find defects before project conclusion. This is not a Project Planning problem per se, however Predictive Planning does not welcome Change to the original Product specification. This adds to the problem. Agile Development both welcomes and expects Change. Predictive Planning is not always the best approach. This is generally due to the fact that it is not geared towards Scope Changes.

Do you Need Planning in Agile?

There are lots of individuals, especially in Software Development, who have a strong dislike of Documentation and Planning. This does not mean that they do not perform these Tasks, they simply do not enjoy them. The Agile Manifesto has a couple of things to address for when it comes to Planning and Documentation. This is due to the fact that it is easily misinterpreted by such individuals, especially:-.

” e Have Come To Value:.
“Working Software Over Comprehensive Documentation” and.
“Responding To Change Instead Of Following A Plan”.

Frequently these Values are cited as an Opportunity to ignore Documentation and Project Planning. This was not what was intended by the Manifesto. A good Agile Project has at least as much Planning, if not more than, a Traditional Project. The only difference is that the Planning for an Agile Project is Adaptive, instead of Predictive.

Agile Project Planning – The Adaptive Plan.

The Fundamental Concept in Agile Planning is that the Plan will be subject to Change. It is therefore pointless spending hours Planning the minutest detail. This is especially the case toward the beginning of the Project where Scope is often not understood. Planning is done Continuously and is Adapted as the Scope and Content of the Project Change. Precision in Planning is only required for the current Iteration (As defined during the Sprint Planning Meeting). The current planned iteration deliverables will be demonstrate during the Sprint Review meeting, where changes can be requested and incorporated into future iterations.

We found these books great for finding out more information on Agile Scrum:

Predictive Planning: The Difference of Planning in Scrum.

A Scrum Project has extensive Planning built into the Framework. This begins with the Initiation Phase, where the Project Vision, which defines the Goals and Objectives, is produced, the Scrum Team (Agile Scrum Master, Scrum Product Owner and Scrum Development Team) is picked and the Requirements are Documented as Epics. A preliminary Estimation of the Risk and Complexity of each Epic is Done and they are Prioritized by Highest Risk first in the Product Backlog. Enough details about the Product is now known at this point to do the long-range Planning. Apart from the drawing up of Epics, virtually the whole of the Initiation phase is devoted to some form of Planning.

The Sprint, which is Scrum’s Iteration, always begins with a Sprint Planning Meeting. During this Meeting, the Work to be Done is chosen and moved to the Sprint Backlog. Each of the User Stories that are selected are broken down into Tasks. At the end of the session, the amount of effort to be put into each Story and Task is understood. The end date for the Sprint was defined during the Initiation phase, so the Sprint is Time-Boxed.

Predictive Planning: Planning Sessions

The shortest Planning session, which also has the shortest Time horizon, is the Daily Stand-up meeting. During this 15-minute Meeting, each Team member describes what Work they Plan to complete before the next Stand-up.

This provides a brief idea of how much Planning actually happens in a Scrum. What is amazing is that every member of the Team actively takes part in Adapting and Maintaining the Plan. There are few Traditional Projects that have a Daily Project Planning session like the Stand-up – the norm will be a weekly Meeting. Other flavours of Agile also pay a great deal of attention to Planning as a Collaborative Effort. Other flavours of Agile also pay a lot of attention to Planning as a Collaborative Effort.

We hope that we have actually broken the myth about Planning in Agile. Agile Projects are far less chaotic than Traditional Project Managers perceive them to be. In truth, practices such as Time-Boxing and frequent and early releases offer discipline to many Agile Projects superior to any Traditional Project.